Trust In Tust’s Prep Picks

24 09 2010

Week 4

Last Week: 9-1  Overall: 9-1

In the first every edition of “Trust In Tust’s Prep Picks,” I did well.  My overall record was 9-1, as the only game I missed was Kendrick-Clearwater Valley.  I said the Rams were going to defend their home turf with a 33-26 win.  The Tigers counter with a 32-16 victory.

Other than that, I gave Colton (58 prediction points/26 actually points), Clarkston (34/18), Moscow (28/7) and Lewis County’s (24/0) offenses to much credit, and Colfax (48/62) and Kamiah’s (34/48) not enough.

As for what I believe is in store this week…

Hermiston (2-1) at Lewiston (2-1, 0-0) – 7 PM
         For the fifth straight season, Lewiston and Hermiston will meet up in a non-league affair.  Two-years ago, the Bengals won a shootout 55-45, while last season the Bulldogs took a defensive battle 22-15.
         I expect this to be a little more like the 2008 edition.  Lewiston quarterback Beau Kerns – who’s only 5’9″ – has a big arm, and it appears head coach Emmett Dougherty has more than enough reliable guys to hand the ball off to.  Senior runningback Tyler Broemeling rushed for 154-yards last week against Pullman, while senior fullback Ryan Humphrey added two touchdowns on the ground as well.
         Hermiston signal-caller Tim Rude is dangerous (11 touchdowns in 3 games), but it seems like Lewiston’s defense is much improved from a year-ago, and is capable of containing a quality passing game (see Clarkston game).
Prediction: Hermiston 28 – Lewiston 35

Moscow (2-2, 0-0) at Priest River (1-2) – 7 PM
          Last week’s game against Clarkston was a tough one for Moscow.  After putting up 85 points in the previous two games (both wins), the Bears offense struggled mightly without senior quarterback Jake Helbling undercenter due to a hand injury.  Head coach John Sheaff’s new no-huddle offense became one dimensional.  Unable to pass the ball, the Bantams focused on senior runningback Justin Parkins and held him under 100-yards for the first time this season.
          The good news, this week they face a team that isn’t nearly as talented as Clarkston.  Expect Parkins to bounce back with over 200 yards rushing (that’s right!) as the Bears will assert their will on a smaller Priest River team.
          Also, Helbling – the reigning IEL Defensive Player of the Year – is still available on defensive, which has been a strong point of Moscow this Fall.  I’ll do the math for you:  Parkins + A Stout Defense = Blow Out
Prediction: Moscow 42 – Priest River 6


Pullman (1-2, 0-0) at Deer Park (3-0, 0-0) – 7 PM
          These two teams have seemingly swapped places in the Great Northern League.  Deer Park used to be a constant sellar dwellar, as Pullman dominanted the league over a majority of the last decade.
         While I wouldn’t bet on the Greyhounds staying down for long, they are clearly in rebuilding mode.  They’ve only scored two touchdowns in the last 10 quarters, and their defense isn’t what it once was.
        As for Deer Park, they’ve notched back-to-back 7-win seasons, and appear to be figuring it out again this Fall.  Even though their non-league schedule was somewhat weak, their defense has allowed an average of only 6 points a game.
        The Greyhounds will get better over the course of the season, I just don’t see them taking that big leap on the road this week.
Prediction:  Pullman 7 – Deer Park 28

Cheney (2-1, 0-0) at Clarkston (2-1, 0-0)– 7 PM
          Clarkston is (or should be) uber-talented on offense.  So far, it doesn’t seems like they’ve been able to really figure it out.  Quarterback Brady Arnone and runningback Colby Hansen (Yes.  He has 7 touchdowns in the last two games.  But this kid has done it himself and could be real special with any help from his line.) are both D-1 talents, but haven’t been able to live up to their full-potential due to an offensive line that has been suspect.  Arnone has had it a little more rough than Hansen, as he just hasn’t had the time to throw.
        If one thing is certain, Cheney always features one of the most athletics teams in the GNL.  Expect them to pressure Arnone constantly, but for him to make enough play to get the job done.
        Also, unlike last year, head coach Dave Curtis has a defense he can lean on while the Bantams get everything figured out on offense.  Sophomore Colby Ruark in starting to emerge as a standout safety, while first-year player Nathan Whittaker seems to be getting the hang of playing corner.  Linebacker Ethan Fox will anchor the middle of the defense, as ends Colton and Cody Chase should be able to pressure the Blackhawks quarterback.
        It won’t look as pretty as it could, but…
Prediction: Cheney 19 – Clarkston 26

2B Southeast
Asotin (2-1, 1-0) at White Swan (1-2) – 7 PM
        Two years ago, Asotin squared off with White Swan in the second round of the 2B playoffs.  Then-Panther senior runningback D.J. Darnall had a huge night, as head coach Sal Lopez directed his team to a 41-20 victory.  The Cougars were just a minor bump in the road as Asotin eventually ended up playing for the 2B state championship.
        However, the two teams we see go at it this Friday night will be mere skeletons of the ones from 2008.  White Swan has only scored two touchdowns in three games this season, and Asotin doesn’t seems to be as talented (or better yet, as deep) on either side of the ball as in years past.
        At the same time, the Panthers still have enough guys to get it done.  Sprinkling in a little of quarterback Ben Servatius’ strong arm to go with their traditional smash-mouth style of football, and…
Prediction: Asotin 33 – White Swan 19

2B Northeast
Colfax (2-0, 1-0) at Liberty (2-0, 1-0) – 7 PM
This will be a common theme for my predictions.  Colfax is so talented this season, they don’t even need me to make a case as to why they will win on a weekly basis. 
Prediction: Colfax 58 – Liberty 14

Kamiah (2-1, 1-0) at Grangeville (4-0, 0-0) –7 PM
        Clearly, Kamiah and Grangeville are the priemere teams in the Central Idaho League this season.  Despite it being only week four, a Kamiah win would put them in the drivers seat in terms of winning a league title.  After blowing out Orofino 48-0 last week, they would make the turn of the league schedule as the only unbeaten team AND get to host the Bulldogs when the two meet up again (presumably for the league championship) next month.
        While Kub fans have to like the sound of that, the Bulldogs have been nothing short of dominant so far this Fall, outscoring the opposition 164-47.  Junior Justin Robie had a breakout performance with over 200-yards against Lewiston’s JV team last week, as Pomeroy-transfer Ryan Koberstein and senior running back Joe Anderson will just be too much.
        This classic rivalry will be a fun one, but Grangeville will get bragging rights.
Prediction: Kamiah 26 – Grangeville 38

Orofino (1-3, 0-1) at St. Maries (1-3) – 7 PM
             Orofino gets the winable game the sorely need.  A 48-0 loss to division-foe Kamiah probably did nothing to help the confidence of a young-Maniac squad.  Expect them to get a little pep in their step back this time around…
Prediction: Orofino 27 – St. Maries 21

1A Whitepine League
Lewis County (2-2, 2-2) at Deary (1-2, 1-2) – 7 PM
        Both these teams seem like absolute wildcards.  Lewis County opened their season with back-to-back wins over Clearwater Valley and Lapwai, only to be outscored 84-6 against Kendrick and Troy the last two weeks.
        Deary on the other hand started off with tough losses to the Rams and Prairie, before finally putting it all together last Friday by knocking off the Wildcats.  In that game, head coach Darrah Eggers went away from the Mustang tradition ground oriented attack, and aired it out for a change.  Senior quarterback Kevin Cannon threw for over 250-yards, while senior wideout Drew Eggers finished with 192-yards receiving.
        With that in mind, it sure seems like the Mustangs are headed in a better direction…
Prediction: Lewis County 22 – Deary 29

(0-4, 0-4) at Clearwater Valley (2-1, 2-1) – 7 PM
        Lapwai is a club that is reeling.  Their defense has surrender 186 points in four games, and their offense can’t find any stablity with injuries causing some shuffling.
        Clearwater Valley is a club that plays with a lot of heart.  With senior runningback Cody Charley shouldering the load, I see this one going to the Rams.
Prediction: Lapwai 18 – Clearwater Valley 32

Genesee (2-1, 2-1) at Kendrick (2-1, 2-1) – 7 PM
Genesee needs to be careful in this one.  Kendrick is coming off an big win over an undefeated Lewis County team, and a convince victory against Clearwater Valley on the road.  It’s still early, but a Tigers win would show the young-squad it a serious playoff contender.  In a league of experienced coaches, Kendrick’s Davey Steele is underated, and knows his X’s and O’s as well as anybody.
        But the one thing about the Bulldogs, they’ve shown they have the most balanced offensive attack in the Whitepine League.  Junior quarterback Sam Druffel and senior tight end Alan Berry are a leathal duo, and senior runningback Tyler Stout heads a rushing attack that you have to respect.
Prediction: Genesee 38 – Kendrick 24

Potlatch (0-2, 0-2) at Troy (3-0, 3-0) – 7 PM
It’s officially do or die week for Potlatch.  A preseason favorite to get back to the playoffs – and even contend for a league title – the Loggers can ill afford an 0-3 start.  Head coach Pat Amos’ crew has had a daunting schedule to open up the season.  After receiving back-to-back byes to open up, Potlatch had to play Genesee and Prairie in the first two games, and now must face unbeaten Troy.
         So far this season, the Trojans have yet to allow a single point, as defensive coordinator Guy Wells has his boys playing at a high level.
         On offensive, senior runningback Marshall Williams is providing one heck of an encore after being named all-state at a junior.  Williams is coming off a season-high 22 carry, 221-yards performance against Lewis County, and has scored five touchdowns in each game the Trojans have played.
         With that in mind, Troy’s schedule hasn’t been that difficult, as this will serve as their toughest test to date.  It’s a test they will pass (as rumors are Williams is a near 4.0 student)…
Prediction: Potlatch 28 – Troy 41

1B Northeast
Pomeroy (1-2, 0-0) at Colton (1-2, 0-0) – 7 PM
In their first season of eight-man football since 1980, Pomeroy has show the ability to put up some points.
         Colton, who’s no stranger to the game, just doesn’t seem to be clicking quite yet.  I’m taking the Pirates on the road.
Prediction: Pomeroy 42 – Colton 32